Monthly Archive for February, 2010

GDP Going Up? It Means Absolutely Nothing.

If there was a period where basic products such as gas, food and construction supplies were either scarce or even rationed, many Americans were out of work and it was even so bad that the auto industry was basically unable to churn out cars – you might consider that a depressed economy, yes? What if during that same period, I told you that GDP was going up by leaps and bounds.  You think I am making it up? That is exactly what happened during World War II.

In fact, most of the Great Depression saw GDP above 5%.

Think about that when you see reports like this one today which says that GDP is up almost 6% and therefore “is another sign that the U.S. economy has pulled out of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression.”

GDP is not meaningless, but it can be. The reason GDP looked so good in WWII is because government was spending boatloads of money on completely useless things like tanks, planes and dressing up grown men in camo pyjamas and shipping them all over the world. The prices for these kinds of things are not market prices and they are also not market demands. They actually detract from the economic well-being of a country – yet the GDP includes them as positives.

That 6% figure from last quarter should scare the crap out of you. It means that in spite of the massive amount of money being thrown at corporations, welfare, job programs and military spending – the GDP only grew by 6%. Projecting how much the real (market-based) economy actually shrank this past quarter is not easy with all of these conflated statistics. But it is highly doubtful that the economy is growing. And it is most assuredly the case that the recession is far from over.

Defining a “Terrorist”

Jack Hunter uses this as his definition of a terrorist:

…someone who intentionally targets civilians to advance an objective or agenda.

Is this a reasonable definition. If so, what are the implications and applications?

Criticism of Oregon Football Program Indicative of Media’s Shoddy and Dangerous Reasoning

Oregon Running Back LaMichael James - accused of domest violence for strangling his girlfriend.I never, ever get a chance to stalk sports on this blog, but I wanted to address the current situation at the University of Oregon.

I love the Oregon Ducks – I stayed up all night over here in GMT-land to watch every single football game this year. Over the last few weeks, there has been a high number of incidents with football players, many of them requiring legal action. But the sheer number of incidents is no doubt troubling:

  • Theft and breaking and entering: QB Jeremiah Masoli and WR Garrett Embry
  • Assault – DE Matt Simms
  • Assault – K Rob Beard
  • Domestic Abuse – RB LaMichael james
  • DUI – LB Kiko Alonso
  • Insubordination – Jamere Holland

Some of these have had team discipline applied where there was clear evidence of guilt or admittance of guilt by a player, regardless of the legal process.  However one case, the most severe, has yielded almost no comment and no reaction thus far from the football program. Star running back James is accused of assault and domestic abuse, having allegedly strangled his girlfriend.

The media and fans are calling for James to be disciplined but the coach has done nothing yet, but wryly indicated on ESPN that he knows a lot more about the case then what has thus far been reported.

Guess what everyone: people are innocent until proven guilty! Coaches can’t run around kicking people off a team because someone has levied accusations against them. James, whom right now no one can know his guilt or innocence, has a right to due process and to defend himself against these accusation. More importantly, his accuser needs to prove that he’s committed a crime.

For a country that has one of the greatest legal traditions in the history of the world, one would think that citizens would be grateful for due process. But it seems that the urge for blood and an opportunity to tear down a young, talented, rising star is too great.

If James is guilty, he should most definitely be punished and kicked off the team. But until that is proven, then the calls for his head and the head of Chip Kelly, need to stop.

Libertarian Infighting Dooms It As A Political Movement

Libertarian philosophy is among the most robust and developed among political philosophies because it practices what it preaches: ruthless competition in the marketplace of ideas, especially with itself. Libertarianism is a big, big tent – much bigger then mainstream political movements. But this is also the feature that causes it the most problems when trying to unite into a sustainable political movement.

Just as in a free-market, eventually a branch of the philosophy wins out and begins to effect real political power: see Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign and the emergence of Austrian Economics as the current big things going on the libertarian movement. For a while, a lot of differences are set aside and the movement unites in a push to gain political traction. However, like any political movement, it begins to be plagued with confusion over what to do with this new found power, and the competition for how/what/who to wield it erodes its base and plunges it back into radicalism.

I fear we may be seeing this now with the current libertarian surge. At the very least it is being set up by the emergence of several “under-leaders” who have already began to quibble:

  • Rand Paul: Ron Paul’s son has ticked off many of his father’s supporters by embracing some standard conservative foreign policy, including support for Gitmo and more socially conservative values.
  • Alex Jones: I think Jones’s ideas are nutty, but he is in the libertarian movement, albeit on the fringes (yes, he’s on the fringes of an often fringe movement). However, he recently lambasted Debra Medina who has spent the last week rabidly denying that she thinks 9/11 was any kind of inside job. Jones evidentially believes her and is withdrawing his support for her.
  • Debra Medina: Assuming she doesn’t win the Texas governorship, I wholly expect that she can win a senatorial or congressional election. But her deep philosophical convictions about questioning government have muddled her answers to the 9/11 truth question and alienated her from some supporters.
  • Glenn Beck: A rift exists between Beck and Medina, and Beck and Jones. In fact, all three do not like each other. beck has made a lot of friends in the libertarian movement, but he has also made enemies with what has happened with Medina and his occasional ideas about killing terrorists rile up the more anti-war in the libertarian movement.
  • Reason Magazine: They just came out with this piece absolutely slamming Ron Paul as having “half-baked crusades” and “silly books.” Reason has had a veiled acceptance of Ron Paul over the past few years, but this seems to be wearing off. The same article offers praise for the CATO Institute as a “serious” libertarian organisation.
  • CATO: Cato has also begrudgingly accented to Ron Paul for the sake of unity. But their decades old spat with the Mises Institute and Austrian Economics eventually puts them at odds with Pauland more ideological libertarians.
  • Mises Institute: They represent the most ideological libertarians, often embracing anarchism. With Ron Paul emerging and promoting Austrian Economics like crazy, they have seen a surge in readership and interest. However, they despise monetarist and Chicago School libertarians and have very little tolerance for the political process.

All of these groups and leaders have began to see alliances forming for control over this well of power created by Ron Paul. I believe they are starting to look as follows:

  1. The rEVOLution Purists. People who will defend the more radical ideology and philosophy of libertarianism:
    Ron Paul, Judge Andrew Napolitano, Mises Institute, Tom Woods
  2. The Pragmatic Club. People who will promote a “bread and butter” libertarianism in the media, academia and journalism:
    Reason, John Stossel, Rand Paul, CATO, Peter Schiff, Libertarian Party
  3. The Republitarians. People who will promote some degree of a watered down version in politics/punditry
    Debra Medina, Glenn Beck, Rand Paul, Bob Barr
  4. The Pet Projects. People who will use libertarianism as a means to advocate conspiracy theories, unsubstantiated hypotheses or untenable:
    Alex Jones, Ayn Rand Institute, Jesse Ventura

Currently, people in these wings would still unite around Paul. I could pull Alex Jones, Glenn Beck, Peter Schiff and Judge Napolitano out of each group, and all of them love Paul. But without Paul’s leadership, these groups suddenly have more overpowering differences then they do similarities. It’s like a wedding where all kinds of friends and family of the bride and groom come together for a time – but without the marriage, these people suddenly have much less reason to be together.

A valid political movement needs a big tent, but also a unified vision and goals. Ron Paul has provided that and called a lot of disparate elements into a common group. But that unified front may be fracturing again as Ron Paul ages. As an ideology and philosophy, this process is what makes libertarianism so strong and vibrant. As a political movement, it is the seed of destruction.

UPDATE: Tom Woods has now issued a counter-attack against Reason here.

Health Care Is Already Socialized. The Real Question: Should It Be Expanded?

The argument over the health care reform package being pushed by Democrats has been over whether it would make health care in the US socialized, and whether US government  control over health care would reduce costs, increase coverage, and increase quality of care. The most fundamental flaw in the logic is that the government already pays 46% of all health care spending in the United States. The question really doesn’t seem to be whether we should have socialized health care, but if we should expand it. (And yes, I would agree we have socialized national defense and law enforcement, and personally don’t think there is inherently anything wrong with government run programs that really are better than privately run programs.)

One commonly mentioned observation about health care in the United States is that we pay a large amount for the care we receive compared to what is paid in other nations. While people for other countries will come here for the best surgeons and specialized care available, the average person in the United States does indeed pay FAR more for health care than in other developed countries. In fact, some estimates suggest that $1.2 trillion of the $2.2 trillion we spend on health care is unnecessary spending. The primary causes of overspending listed are up to $210 billion on unnecessary testing and $210 billion on claim processing. Add in ignoring doctor’s orders and inefficient technology for another $188 billion combined, and we have a lot of inefficiencies that should be easy to address by a unified health care provider like the United States government (allowing them to provide more efficient health care).

In fact, assuming the savings are equal between government programs and private programs, you could double the benefit of government health care purely by addressing inefficiencies. Throw in fraud and other problems with the government program, and we should be able to greatly reduce national health care costs with no changes to existing law. I wouldn’t even think you’d need to make a law to spread these initiatives into the private sector. A first step here would be working with insurance companies to derive a generic, simple, and efficient claims processing standard that provides the information needed by each company to process claims. If the major companies were in agreement, doctors would simply drop any insurer who didn’t adopt the standard. Developing clear guidelines for testing would also seem like something that could be achieved cooperatively. Cash for testing should, of course, always be available as a safeguard.

To  summarize: we already have socialized health care, and inefficient socialized health care at that. If the government wants to convince me that they should become a single payer, they need to start by getting their own house in order. Once Medicare is so good people want to buy in and so efficient we can afford to let them, we can talk about making a public option available to everyone.

Video of Fox News Downplaying CPAC; Or The Daily Kos Does Something Useful

I have never even been to the Daily Kos webpage before today, but this video is incredible.

What do you think would have been Fox’s response if one of their boys had won?

Also – I love how the biggest criticism they can muster is that young people were there. The GOP has ZERO future if this is it’s outlook.

The Southern Avenger Strikes Again

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukzPf_6eNBg&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

I have become a big fan of Jack Hunter lately. He, along with Thomas Woods, represent a vocal return to “old right” principles in the conservative movement. Hunter comes from the Pat Buchanan wing of conservatism, while Woods is from the paleolibertarian school.

This video is a cohesive explanation of the dilemma currently facing the republicans, and where “Ron Paul people” fit into it.

Bob Barr Nails Mike Huckabee’s CPAC MIA On The Head

I voted for Bob Barr in 2008. In some ways, I feel a little bad about it because Barr doesn’t always get it right. Also, my wife wrote in Ron Paul – and I realised that this what I should have done.

However, Barr had some wise words about this year’s CPAC; which suddenly no one is talking about (probably because it wasn’t the GOP establishment love-fest it normally is). Mike Huckabee even refused to go – saying it was “more libertarian” then he would have liked. Barr uses Huckabee’s absence to make a wise point about the current attitude of mainstream republican leadership:

Huckabee’s statement is not only representative of the rise of our shared values; it’s also a telling example of how Republicans work.

For many years, I have chosen to attend and speak at CPAC and many other events – “conservative” and “liberal” – knowing good and well that I may very well be booed for delivering a pro-liberty message. I also know countless others who do the same. Does the fear of facing an opposing argument keep us out of attendance?

Heck no!

Unlike Huckabee and his colleagues who feel entitled to respect and a cheering crowd, we embrace the opportunity to deliver a pro-liberty message to those who may not want to hear it.

That’s one clear difference between them and us. We’re willing to fight to get our nation onto a path of liberty, while they walk off of the field when times get tough.

Think about it. As early as twenty five years ago – there was massive debate in a political party – even up to the convention, about what it’s platform and candidates should be all about. The Republican Party has instead become a party of unity for it’s own sake, and severely compromising conservative principles to get elected. What is “libertarianism” today, was once an accepted and nourished wing of the GOP.

Links Explosion Extravaganza and Spending Spree of Link Currency!

I admit it. I have been derelict in my linking. My workload is fairly intense at the moment – even my video games are suffering. Nevertheless, links are now provided – straight from the mouths of the suicidal die-hards left on this slowly sinking ship of a site. Post a link in the forum and we’ll put it up in our weekly (…I’m so irresponsible…) links post!

The Human Animal
Working women who claim partners don’t pull their weight do so to feel more feminine and in charge in the home

Better Off Deadbeat: Craig Cunningham Has a Simple Solution for Getting Bill Collectors Off His Back. He Sues Them:

While most Americans with unpaid bills dread the collector’s call, Cunningham sees them as lucrative opportunities. Many collection and credit card companies, intentionally or not, violate little-known consumer rights laws, and Cunningham’s favorite pastime is catching them doing so and then suing them. In fact, it’s a profitable side job.

[Most debtors], either because they feel morally obligated or because they don’t know their options, get backed into a corner by their creditors and believe they have to repay their debts, he says. Not so with Cunningham. “I don’t have to do anything but stay black and die,” he says, a small, smug smile on his lips.

Former New York debt collector turned consumer advocate … Steven Katz doesn’t believe that people are morally obligated to pay back their debts. That notion was invented by debt collectors as a way to beat people into submission, he says. “Bill collectors would love for you to send them a check and then explain to your kids because you have the moral obligation to pay your debt they’re not eating this week,” he says. “But they don’t see the moral obligation to feed your children or yourself.

Another article celebrating the wickedness of man. The Secret Lives of Married Men.

The Political Animal
The Forfeiture Racket:

Over the past three decades, it has become routine in the United States for state, local, and federal governments to seize the property of people who were never even charged with, much less convicted of, a crime.
….
State officials can seize property without a warrant and need only show “probable cause” that the booty was connected to a drug crime in order to keep it, as opposed to the criminal standard of proof “beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Washington Post Columnist writes about young activists adding fuel to antiabortion side

‘Realistic-size me’. FDA looks at changing serving sizes to fit what people actually consume.

Most Americans fail a basic civics test made up of questions from naturalization exams given to immigrants seeking citizenship. Take the 33-question test yourself to see how you do: Civics Quiz.

Ron Paul Helped Inspire the Tea Party Movement, and Now It Could Take Him Down

Terrorism Derangement Syndrome

The Religious… Animal?
Be careful how you speak of God. Using the “wrong” word could get your church bombed.

A retired engineer determined to prevent his home being sacrificed to the sea is battling on, despite being denied the right to maintain his self-made sea defences.

Links for Which I could Not Figure out a Clever Way to Use the Word “Animal”
EUGENE, Ore. — We’re learning more about a Eugene man, Ben Bond, who was fined $810 after a confrontation with a meter maid. The trouble started Wednesday when Bond tried paying the expired parking meters of strangers.

A farmer who secretly built a castle and hid it behind straw bales for four years while he lived in it has lost a court battle to stop it being demolished.

If you have been under a rock: Here is the best you tube economics rap ever.

How to Report the News: Cliches in News Programs

Glenn Beck Uses TSA/DHS Interrorgation Tactics On Debra Medina

I decided to something a little bit different. Rather than blog, I made the first of what I hope will be more (occasional) videos to follow. If anyone else want to make these, I can send you the intro, outro and byline template.

[vimeo width="500" height="300"]9399814[/vimeo]

This video is my analysis of Glenn Beck’s controversial interview with Debra Medina where Beck uses the same techniques that DHS and TSA use on Americans and foreigners when entering the US. It casts significant doubts on Becks credibility and also his motivations for interviewing Medina in the first place. I have broken apart the interview and analysed it – revealing some of Beck’s dubious motives and questionable tactics.