Inflation Surges Correlate with War

After every major US war, there is a general surge in inflation. Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and several libertarian economists have theorized that this is because spending on wars is largely financed by fiat printing via the federal reserve. According to Paul:

If every American taxpayer had to submit an extra five or ten thousand dollars to the IRS this April to pay for the war, I’m quite certain it would end very quickly. The problem is that government finances war by borrowing and printing money, rather than presenting a bill directly in the form of higher taxes.

Just taking a cursory look at an inflation graph will prove this point rather easily. Here is one, with periods of war highlighted in red.

The year after World War I saw the CPI go up 14.9% and 15.8% in 1919 and 1920 respectively. After World War II, the next three years were 8.5%, 14.4% and 7.8%. There was a negligible surge after the Korean War. But after the long, costly war in Vietnam, rates rose 11% the first year and stayed relatively high for several years.

Obviously it is tough to correlate these figures exactly. Overall production has a large effect on these figures – either augmenting or taming inflation. Whatever the cause, it should be clear that there is a historical president that may see repeating at the end of the current war.

19 Responses to “Inflation Surges Correlate with War”


  1. 1 Drew Jul 17th, 2007 at 1:16 pm

    Ron Paul 2008!

  2. 2 Colin Elliott Jul 17th, 2007 at 1:43 pm

    Love the Paul, hate the spammers.

  3. 3 Jew Jul 17th, 2007 at 1:59 pm

    Ron Paul needs to explain the deflation of 1920-21, given that it came just a couple years after World War I.

  4. 4 Richard Blake Jul 17th, 2007 at 4:42 pm

    Here are the real inflation numbers –
    http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

    It’s at 12% and climbing. In just four years, your money will have HALF the spending power it has today, at this rate of inflation. The government states it’s really at only 2%. Guess which number your employer is going to use, to determine your yearly raise?

    Who cares why. Care more about who. It’s the corporate-owned Federal Reserve that’s doing it. They lend our government money and charge interest. It’s been that way since 1913.

    The income tax on your wages goes toward paying the interest on these loans. How much? 100% of it goes straight into the pockets of these private international bankers. None of this tax — which is about 25% of your income — goes toward America. None of it.

    When people have anything to say against Ron Paul, they need to weigh it against their desire to retire in this country. Because if things continue as-is, no one of us are going to be able to retire because our retirement money won’t be able to buy anything worthwhile.

    Your future is being sold to pay for war. International corporations profit from these wars, and grow more powerful.

    I used to think this was a no-brainer. But Americans are truly very stupid people. They voted GW into office TWICE in a row! I don’t much hope that these same stupid Americans are going to wake up enough to make any changes.

    I went to the store today. I casually asked people standing around me what they knew of these things. Everyone looked stupid, blank-faced and oblivious. I could have been standing in the middle of a bunch of runty dogs at the pound. No one knows what’s going on, and no one cares. The majority, at least.

    I recommend that if you are aware and conscious of what’s about to happen, that you liquidate all of your assets and get completely out of US dollars while you still can. Then move to another country — not Canada or Mexico.

    Good luck! I hope you make it!

  5. 5 R Hammond Jul 17th, 2007 at 4:43 pm

    Here are the real inflation numbers –
    http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

    It’s at 12% and climbing. In just four years, your money will have HALF the spending power it has today, at this rate of inflation. The government states it’s really at only 2%. Guess which number your employer is going to use, to determine your yearly raise?

    Who cares why. Care more about who. It’s the corporate-owned Federal Reserve that’s doing it. They lend our government money and charge interest. It’s been that way since 1913.

    The income tax on your wages goes toward paying the interest on these loans. How much? 100% of it goes straight into the pockets of these private international bankers. None of this tax — which is about 25% of your income — goes toward America. None of it.

    When people have anything to say against Ron Paul, they need to weigh it against their desire to retire in this country. Because if things continue as-is, no one of us are going to be able to retire because our retirement money won’t be able to buy anything worthwhile.

    Your future is being sold to pay for war. International corporations profit from these wars, and grow more powerful.

    I used to think this was a no-brainer. But Americans are truly very stupid people. They voted GW into office TWICE in a row! I don’t much hope that these same stupid Americans are going to wake up enough to make any changes.

    I went to the store today. I casually asked people standing around me what they knew of these things. Everyone looked stupid, blank-faced and oblivious. I could have been standing in the middle of a bunch of runty dogs at the pound. No one knows what’s going on, and no one cares. The majority, at least.

    I recommend that if you are aware and conscious of what’s about to happen, that you liquidate all of your assets and get completely out of US dollars while you still can. Then move to another country — not Canada or Mexico.

    Good luck! I hope you make it!

  6. 6 Colin Elliott Jul 17th, 2007 at 6:48 pm

    The shadowstats site is definitely a great read. I have no idea if the above is spam, but even if so, it’s worth it just for the shadowstats link.

  7. 7 R Hammond Jul 17th, 2007 at 8:35 pm

    Spam is email-based, not bulletin board-based. You can’t spam a bulletin board because you can’t load a message into a bulk emailer and then have it post the same message on millions of bulletin boards at the same time. That’s next to impossible. It has to be done one person at a time.

    My post was not an email and you are not viewing somebody’s email client inbox through a web page.

    If you like the stats site, check this out as well –
    http://www.solari.com — also check out her credentials before you start reading.

  8. 8 R Hammond Jul 17th, 2007 at 8:37 pm

    Spam is email-based, not bulletin board-based. My post was not an email and you are not viewing somebody’s email client inbox through a web page.

    If you like the stats site, check this out as well –
    http://www.solari.com — also check out her credentials before you start reading.

  9. 9 R Hammond Jul 17th, 2007 at 8:43 pm

    While I’m sharing info, check this out, too.

    http://www.collective2.com

    Collective2 monitors over 3,608 trading systems. Whether you trade stocks, futures, forex, or options - you’ll find a trading strategy here on C2.

    Think of us as an independent “trading system auditor.” We’ll investigate which trading systems are profitable. Then you can set up your own personal hedge fund, and have trades placed automatically in your brokerage account.

  10. 10 Jasen Tracy Jul 17th, 2007 at 10:13 pm

    Ha! Spam transcends any single medium.

  11. 11 R Hammond Jul 17th, 2007 at 11:13 pm

    Spam is specific to bulk email. This takes special software to do (I used to specialize in email marketing). It is also specific to unsolicited business email. It’s an attempt to sell a product or service.

    One cannot “spam” thousands or millions of bulletin boards located on **different servers**, in the same way that it can be done with email. It’s technically impossible.

    One cannot “spam” their television set. Nor can they “spam” a Web-based chat room. Same goes for your newspapers or magazines. These are all media.

    The industry definition of spam is quite precise and has not changed for many years. There are many laws specific to email spam at the federal and state level. No such laws exist for posting messages on a web-based bulletin board.

  12. 12 Darius Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:06 am

    Tomato, tomahto…

  13. 13 Jew Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:17 am

    Tell you what, R Hammond. You call it whatever you want. I’ll delete it if it isn’t appropriate for Zeal for Truth, or if it doesn’t add value to the discussion. Terminology aside, what we’re looking to avoid is useless posts that clutter up the place and detract from genuine conversations and debates. I wouldn’t put any of your posts in that category though, so no worries.

    I skimmed over the ShadowStats website, but I don’t have the credentials to judge whether the information is credible. I’ll reserve judgment until I know more.

  14. 14 Colin Elliott Jul 18th, 2007 at 1:23 am

    R Hammond - my sincere apologies for thinking your post was spam. Thank you very much for taking the time to read the article and respond. I thought, based on verbiage and the subject, that I was getting spam. Terribly sorry for the confusion and I hope you will continue to post comments when you have information/opinions to share.

  15. 15 Darius Jul 18th, 2007 at 10:34 am

    “I thought, based on verbiage and the subject, that I was getting spam.”

    Could have fooled me as well. “Run for the hills (or Mexico or Canada), the feds are going to get ya” conspiracy theories always smell like spam.

  16. 16 Colin Elliott Jul 18th, 2007 at 10:42 am

    Shadowstats really is a critical site now, especially since the fed no longer releases M3.

  17. 17 Jew Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:52 pm

    “liquidate all of your assets and get completely out of US dollars while you still can”

    I’m trying to think of a better currency than American dollars, but there aren’t any attractive options. Neither euros nor pounds seem any better.

  18. 18 Colin Elliott Jul 18th, 2007 at 2:19 pm

    three letters for you:

    CHF

    That currency was only taken off gold in 2000.

  19. 19 R Hammond Jul 18th, 2007 at 8:07 pm

    CHF (Swiss Francs) are nice. Yuan would be nice but it’s still “pegged” to the US dollar, even though it’s not. Yen is kicking. Euros are okay. The idea really is to create a basket of currencies. Digital gold might suffice.

    Gold IRAs look nice.

    Check out

    https://secure.swissamerica.com/offer/IRA.php?tcode=SA-IRAbanner

    and also

    http://www.usagold.com/ira.html

    You can also buy foreign bonds that are denominated in foreign currencies. Not sure how to do that yet, though. Who out there would broker this for us silly Americans?

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